Two nights of ballroom were enough to rewrite the Season 35 market, and the name on top isn't the one most viewers had circled when the cast was announced.
Maura Higgins, the Irish Love Island alum and recent finalist on The Traitors, was trading in single digits before the premiere. Then she and Mark Ballas danced a foxtrot that earned the top score of night two, and Kalshi traders now give her a 35% chance of lifting the Mirrorball Trophy, a jump of 29 points.
More than $1.28 million has traded on the Kalshi market asking who will be the Dancing with the Stars winner, and 14 couples are still in the ballroom.
Dancing with the Stars Season 35 winner probabilities
Here is how the market looks:
| Celebrity | Pro partner | Chance to win |
|---|---|---|
| Maura Higgins | Mark Ballas | 35% |
| Harry Shum Jr. | Jenna Johnson | 24% |
| Jenna Dewan | Val Chmerkovskiy | 17% |
| Ezra Frech | Daniella Karagach | 6% |
| Amber Glenn | Pasha Pashkov | 6% |
| Jackson Olson | Emma Slater | 6% |
| Julia Stiles | Ezra Sosa | 4% |
| Connor Wood | Rylee Arnold | 3% |
| Ciara Miller | Brandon Armstrong | 1% |
| Giada De Laurentiis | Alan Bersten | Under 1% |
The top three hold 76% between them, leaving about a quarter for the other 11 couples.
Dancing with the Stars premiere recap
The men went first, and Harry Shum Jr. did what a trained dancer best known for Glee was expected to do, topping the night-one leaderboard with a 21 for his cha cha with Jenna Johnson.
Ezra Frech, who won two Paralympic golds in Paris, sat one point back on 20 after a tango with Daniella Karagach. Conner Leavitt went home that night even though he outscored Guillermo Rodriguez, after the voting website crashed and only text votes were counted.
Wednesday's show belonged to Higgins, whose foxtrot to "Black Velvet" leaned on her run on The Traitors, hooded figures included, and drew "mesmerizing" from Carrie Ann Inaba.
Her 21 put her two points clear of Jenna Dewan and Val Chmerkovskiy, with Amber Glenn and Julia Stiles tied on 18. Sarah Jane Nader was the second celebrity sent home.
Why Maura Higgins is the new DWTS favorite
Ballas has won the show three times, most recently with Charli D'Amelio in Season 31, and the full list of past championsshows only one current pro, Chmerkovskiy, with as many.
Still, 35% is a lot to pay for one routine in a 14-couple field. Judges' scores are combined with the viewer vote each week, which is how Leavitt went home despite not finishing last on the leaderboard.
Shum matched her score a night earlier, and he's priced 11 points lower. Dewan held the top spot for most of the run-up to the premiere, is partnered with a three-time champion, and sits at 17% after scoring 19.
DWTS Predictions: The best outside trades
Ezra Frech stands out as the best outside trade. He posted the second-best score of the entire premiere and still lost 12 points in the Higgins rally, which looks like traders chasing a headline rather than judging his dancing.
His partner, Karagach, won Season 30 with Iman Shumpert, and athletes have a long record on this show, from Emmitt Smith in Season 3 to Rashad Jennings in Season 24. A double gold medalist with a story that plays well on a live vote shouldn't be trading at 6%.
Amber Glenn, the other long shot worth a look, took team gold at the Milan Cortina Games and landed a triple Axel on Olympic ice, and Kristi Yamaguchi and Meryl Davis have both won as skaters. The catch is Pasha Pashkov, who has never taken the trophy, so 6% looks close to fair rather than cheap.
Julia Stiles is the deepest value on paper. The Save the Last Dance star matched Glenn's 18 and costs about two-thirds as much. Jackson Olson is the one to avoid, since the Savannah Bananas infielder scored 15 on night one and is priced level with Frech.
Is the DWTS winner priced right?
Entertainment markets move hard on the latest headline, and the next James Bond market showed it when a single Gary Oldman interview helped push Jack Lowden from 25 cents to 43.
Higgins is a deserving favorite, but a 29-point move on one foxtrot prices in a lot of weeks that haven't been danced yet.
CALLED IT. has Higgins nearer 28% and Frech nearer 10%, four points above his 6¢ price. This is not guaranteed because one bad week with the voters ends any long shot's run, however, it is a slight edge. Our guide to how prediction markets set the odds explains what a 6¢ contract is telling you.
Dancing with the Stars winner FAQ
Who is favored to win Dancing with the Stars Season 35?
Maura Higgins leads the Kalshi market at 35%, ahead of Harry Shum Jr. at 24% and Jenna Dewan at 17%.
Who has been eliminated from Dancing with the Stars Season 35?
Conner Leavitt went home after night one, and Sarah Jane Nader followed after night two, leaving 14 couples.
How is the Dancing with the Stars winner decided?
Each week, the judges' scores are combined with the viewer vote to decide who goes home. On the premiere, a voting website crash meant only text votes counted.
Who won Dancing with the Stars last season?
Robert Irwin and Witney Carson won Season 34.
Which pro has the most Dancing with the Stars wins?
Derek Hough won six times as a pro and now sits on the judging panel. Mark Ballas and Val Chmerkovskiy have three wins each.
Prediction markets involve risk. This article reflects opinion and market analysis and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only.