Buffalo hosts Detroit at 8:15 p.m. ET in the first regular season game at the new Highmark Stadium, and these two offenses have scored more points per game than anyone else in the league over their last 50 regular-season games. 

Kalshi has the Bills at 68% to win and the full-game total sits in the low 50s, so most of the week's talk has been about a shootout.

The first-quarter market is quieter, with Buffalo to lead after one quarter at 48¢, Detroit at 32¢ and a tie at 21¢.

Lions injury report: Two linemen out

Detroit has ruled out right tackle Blake Miller and left guard Christian Mahogany, and center Cade Mays is already on injured reserve with a broken wrist. 

Jahmyr Gibbs ran for 156 yards and two touchdowns against New Orleans, but he did it behind a line that won't look the same tonight. With only four days to settle a new combination, the opening drives are where we'd expect it to struggle most.

Why Thursday Night Football can start slow

Both teams won tight games on Sunday and now turn around for a Thursday night kickoff. Buffalo beat Houston 36-31, and Detroit was held to seven first-half points by the Saints before pulling away, then needed overtime to finish a game it once led 21-0. 

The Lions also got help from the Jared Goff incomplete-pass ruling that wiped out a Saints touchdown before halftime. We made a similar case in our Broncos vs Chiefs prediction, where the full-game price drew the attention and the first half was left alone.

Bills vs Lions injury report and prices

  • Kickoff 8:15 p.m. ET at Highmark Stadium, on Prime Video
  • Kalshi first quarter: Buffalo 48¢, Detroit 32¢, tie 21¢
  • A winning contract settles at $1, so $20 buys about 95 tie contracts and returns roughly $95, a $75 profit before fees
  • Any level score pays the same, whether that's 0-0, 3-3, 7-7 or 14-14
  • Detroit: Miller and Mahogany out, cornerback D.J. Reed questionable
  • Buffalo: safety Cole Bishop, running back Ty Johnson and defensive lineman T.J. Sanders questionable

The case against: Gibbs and Allen

Buffalo gave up 136.2 rushing yards a game last season, 28th in the league, and Gibbs had a career-high 34 touches against New Orleans.

The Lions' secondary is thin as well, with safeties Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph both on the PUP list, which gives Josh Allen room to hit something early.

CALLED IT.'s Prediction

A first-quarter tie at 21¢ breaks even if it happens 21% of the time, before fees, and we think the real chance is closer to 23%.

A Detroit line missing two starters is likely to stall early, and Buffalo's opening drives have to get past a front led by Aidan Hutchinson, who sacked the Saints' quarterback twice on Sunday.

CALLED IT. called this at 21¢. We have it at 23%. Two points is a thin edge on a contract that returns close to five times the stake, and that's the position.

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