Marvel fans used to argue about casting rumors in comment sections. Now they put money on them. 

With Avengers: Doomsday arriving in theaters on December 18, 2026, Kalshi runs markets on whether individual heroes will officially appear in the film, and the prices have turned into a live scoreboard for the Multiverse Saga's worst-kept secrets.

The strangest number on that scoreboard belongs to Spider-Man. Tobey Maguire trades at 93¢ to appear, while Tom Holland, who has worn the suit for the last decade, sits at just 54¢.

Over $860,000 has already traded across the Doomsday cast markets, real money committed while most of these appearances remain unconfirmed.

Tobey Maguire and Hugh Jackman lead a legacy reunion

Look at the top of the board and a pattern emerges. Maguire at 93¢, Hugh Jackman's Wolverine at 95¢, and Ryan Reynolds' Deadpool at 94¢ are the three strongest unconfirmed prices in the market. Traders are treating Doomsday less as a continuation of the current Avengers roster and more as a multiverse reunion built on returning legends.

The ending of Spider-Man: Brand New Day, which opened July 31, poured fuel on exactly that reading. Maguire's market is trading at the highest it has ever been.

None of those names appear on the officially confirmed cast list of 30 returning Marvel actors, so every cent of these prices is inference, built from a film ending, a studio's franchise math, and Marvel's habit of saving its biggest reveals for the theater. What the market is really deciding is what kind of movie Doomsday will be, and right now the money says the past beats the present.

Kate Bishop leads the next-generation Avengers

Hailee Steinfeld's Kate Bishop, at 68¢, is the steadiest of the younger-hero markets. The Hawkeye breakout is the most natural face of the next-generation bench Marvel has spent Phase Six assembling, and traders are pricing her accordingly.

Still, 68¢ is confidence without confirmation. She is just as absent from the announced cast list as Holland, and the price leans on reports of her return and her own teasing rather than anything official from Marvel.

Iman Vellani's Ms. Marvel is back above Spider-Man

Iman Vellani's Ms. Marvel tells the best story on the board. After her market slid into the mid-40s in early August, traders have since bought her back to 62¢, up 4 on the day and above Tom Holland's Spider-Man at 54¢. Whatever caused the August wobble, the crowd has clearly moved past it, and she once again sits alongside Kate Bishop, who leads her by just 6 points at 68¢.

All eyes on the next Avengers: Doomsday trailer

A few catalysts are worth watching between now and release:

  • The next trailer, after July's Comic-Con debut left these three markets unresolved
  • Any official casting announcement from Marvel Studios
  • Credible insider reporting on reshoots and additional photography
  • Promotional footage and poster art in the fall marketing push

Marvel may never confirm the cast early

Marvel kept Robert Downey Jr.'s return as Doctor Doom secret until he removed the mask on a convention stage, a reminder that this studio releases casting news on its own schedule.

If Spider-Man's presence is the surprise worth protecting, an official announcement may never come, and these prices would stay unresolved right up to opening night. The uncertainty shows in the trading. Holland slipped 4 points on the day even as Maguire ticked higher, so the market is still arguing with itself about how much of the Multiverse Saga's past is coming back.

Avengers: Doomsday cast FAQ

What is the Avengers: Doomsday release date? 

Avengers: Doomsday is scheduled to release in theaters on December 18, 2026, directed by Anthony and Joe Russo with Robert Downey Jr. as Doctor Doom.

Is Tom Holland confirmed for Avengers: Doomsday? 

No. Marvel has not officially announced Tom Holland, and he is not on the confirmed cast list. Prediction markets currently price his appearance at 54%.

Which Spider-Man is favored to appear in Avengers: Doomsday? 

Tobey Maguire. Traders price his appearance at 93%, well ahead of Tom Holland at 54% and Andrew Garfield at 18%, a strong signal the market expects a multiverse reunion rather than a continuation.

Why is Kate Bishop favored among the younger heroes? 

Hailee Steinfeld's Kate Bishop became one of Marvel's most popular next-generation heroes after Hawkeye, and traders expect the studio to feature its younger Avengers as the saga builds toward its close. Her market sits at 68%.

How do these prediction markets work? 

Traders buy Yes or No contracts, and the price reflects the market's estimated probability of the outcome. Prices move as trailers, announcements, and reporting arrive. Our plain-English explainer covers the mechanics, and our early Oscar call on The Odyssey shows how CALLED IT. approaches entertainment markets.

Prediction markets involve risk. This article reflects opinion and market analysis and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only.