The distribution clusters hard around 840 to 879 at 32%, with the 800-839 and 880-919 buckets both in the low twenties, so the market is confident Musk lands somewhere in the mid-800s and unsure only about the exact 40-count band. That's a bet on habit rather than news, and the fat tails are cheap for a reason. What moves it is a burst tied to a product launch, a political fight, or a platform feud, any of which can add a hundred posts in a weekend and jump him two buckets. The narrow bands each carry real bucket risk, so conviction on the center still needs the count to cooperate.
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