The pricing looks upside down until you read the form. Sassuolo as road favorites near 38% over a home Monza at 35% reflects a visiting side with seven points from four games, fresh off beating Juventus, against a Monza team still winless and bottom of the table having shipped 11 goals. What holds Monza's number up is history and venue. Monza have taken points off Sassuolo in recent meetings and Sassuolo carry a long road winless run, so the home edge and the head-to-head record fight the current-season gap. Two leaky defenses point toward goals, which is why the 28% draw may be the softest line on the board.
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