Every day on this board trades in the eighties or higher, which is the market saying Israeli military action in Lebanon on any given day is closer to routine than to event. That reading has grounding. Israel has kept up strikes through a June ceasefire it says Hezbollah keeps violating, with a wave in early September killing more than a dozen after a lull. The prices lower slightly for dates further out, a sensible nod to how ceasefire talk or a genuine pause could break the pattern. The trade is really a wager on tempo, and the recent tempo has been relentless. What moves it is a real diplomatic freeze, not a quiet news day.
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