The market has settled into a fight between the 65 to 70 million bucket at roughly 46% and at least 70 million near 29%, which tracks the trade tightening its range as opening nears. Analyst tracking moved from an early 30 to 40 million forecast up to 40 to 50 million, with 45 million the industry midpoint, and Zach Cregger arrives off Weapons opening at 43.5 million with reviews running ahead of that film. The tell is whether it plays beyond the horror core. Every prior Resident Evil topped out under 27 million domestic, so a 65-plus number would be franchise-record territory, and rounds are set by whether casual audiences show up, not the fans who were always coming.
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