A fifth of a percent is the market saying nothing happens, and the base rate agrees. A sitting president leaves office early only through death, resignation, or removal, and none is in motion, least of all for a president currently prosecuting a war his administration is running. The naval blockade of Iran is commanded through Trump and his defense secretary. Removal needs a House majority and 67 Senate votes, resignation needs a reason that does not exist, and both take longer than the days left on the clock. What would move this is a genuine health event or a sudden constitutional rupture, which is why it trades where actuarial tables live rather than where politics does.
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