Paul St-Pierre Plamondon's Parti Québécois has led Quebec polling for months, with a late-September Segma survey putting them near 29 percent, and the price above 90 percent reads the seat math as close to settled. A first-past-the-post system with a fractured field, where the CAQ collapsed from 90 seats and the Liberals, QS and Conservatives divide the rest, converts a modest plurality into a large seat haul. What would move it is a second-place consolidation in the final days, since Fréchette's CAQ still holds the incumbency and a base of ridings. Quebec has a history of late campaign swings, 2014 being the cautionary case, so treat the last-week polling as the real variable.
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