Pam Alexis at 49% against Kerry-Lynne Findlay at 27% is the market fading the Conservative leader in a seat her own party just held, and the divergence is the whole story. Findlay's Conservatives took this riding in 2024, with Gasper winning 55.4% over Alexis, and the first by-election poll put Findlay 15 points ahead. Cutting against that, seven MLAs left the BC Tories in August with two more in early September, many citing Findlay's leadership, and seven have formed a new center-right party. A splintering caucus and the manner of Gasper's exit give the NDP a lane. Read the price as a referendum on Conservative turmoil, not on Alexis.
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