This is a two-name market wearing a thirteen-name costume. Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro split the vast majority of the probability, with everyone from Caiado to Cury to Santos stuck near zero because none has cleared single digits in any recent poll. The live question is which of the two leads the first-round count, and the polls disagree, with some Datafolha and Quaest reads showing Lula ahead on first-round preference while runoff simulations sit inside the margin of error. Lula's incumbency and consolidated left tend to win the first-round plurality even when the runoff looks tighter. Flávio's ceiling depends on the right not fragmenting.
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