Milei near 79% is the only line here doing real work, and it is basically settled. Trump and Milei met September 23 on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, where the Treasury floated a $20 billion swap line for Argentina. If the market is resolving on any September meeting, that already cleared. Everyone else, Netanyahu, Putin, MBS, Kim, Starmer, sits under 2% because a fresh sit-down inside the calendar window isn't scheduled and low-single-digit prices are mostly fee and tail risk. Read the Milei rules carefully, because the gap between 79% and a done meeting is resolution language, not doubt about whether they shook hands.
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