The near-term contract sits near 11 percent, and the ground supports the skepticism. ISW reported Russian forces conducting only limited operations near Borova through late September without advancing, as Ukrainian units counterattacked. The full-year contract at 21 percent is where the interesting question lives, because Borova sits inside the broader Kupyansk and Oskil River fight that Russia has pressed for over a year with slow, grinding gains. Winter typically hardens lines rather than breaking them, and Ukrainian defenses around the Oskil have held repeatedly. A trader here is pricing whether incremental pressure converts to entry before the calendar turns, and the recent pattern is stalled attacks, not breakthrough.
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