Five percent prices a deal as unlikely but not absurd, which fits a war that has already produced two failed frameworks. The Islamabad Memorandum was signed on June 17, a June 28 ceasefire followed, and the deal collapsed on July 8 when Iran resumed attacks on Hormuz shipping. Tehran's stated goal, sovereignty over the strait and tolls on passing ships, is the exact thing Washington will not sign, so the parties are not close on substance. Iran has repeatedly attacked ships in the strait to coerce vessels into following Iranian routes and fees. A surprise back-channel breakthrough is the whole case for Yes, and history here favors the collapse.
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