PAM at 86% to finish first is the market betting the junior coalition partner leapfrogs the party that led it. RNI won 102 seats in 2021 to become the largest bloc, with PAM at 87 and Istiqlal at 81 rounding out the governing three. What underwrites PAM's price is Fouzi Lekjaa, the football federation president and budget minister who joined PAM in 2026, alongside El Mansouri signaling she does not personally favor another RNI-led coalition. RNI at 25% still has incumbency and organization. Moroccan lists and a proportional system make first place a seat-count question as much as a vote-share one, so treat any single number with care.
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