This one asks whether Iran targets Ukraine by September 30, priced near zero, and the direction of the grievance is worth getting right. It was Ukraine that struck an Iranian-linked commercial vessel in the Caspian in July, killing a sailor, and Tehran that vowed retaliation, so the setup exists for an Iranian response. The friction is real, rooted in Iran's drone supply to Russia and Kyiv's counter-drone work with Gulf states. Against that, Iran spent much of 2026 absorbed by its own war and fragile US talks, with little capacity or incentive to open a direct front against Ukraine in a two-day window. The price reflects that a specific strike by a hard deadline is a narrow event, not that tension is absent.
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