The September contract sits under 1 percent because the window is nearly closed and the Houthis have held fire on Israel, with attacks paused under the Iran war ceasefire framework. The October contract near 26 percent is the one worth thinking about. The Houthis resumed strikes on Israel in March 2026, opened a direct conflict with Saudi Arabia in July, and have framed their posture as conditional on Israeli conduct toward Iran and its allies. A pause is not a settlement, and the group has repeatedly restarted when it judged the terms broken. The trade is whether a fragile hold survives another full month.
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