The September 30 line sits near 3% while the December 31 line trades at 54%, and that gap is the whole trade. The Houthis resumed missile fire on Israel in March before pausing under the Iran-war ceasefire, and Israel has struck Yemen repeatedly across 2024 and 2025, so the base rate for eventual action is high. Timing is the hard part. A near-term strike needs a trigger inside days, and the current pause holds unless the Houthis resume attacks in force, which they've avoided while focused on their own civil war. The longer window prices the drift toward renewed conflict as the ceasefire frays. Watch for Red Sea shipping threats as the tell.
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