The US issued a 60-day Iranian oil waiver in June under the ceasefire framework, then revoked it in July after Iran was blamed for striking ships in the Strait of Hormuz, with wind-down running to July 17. That reversal is the anchor here. A reissue by September 30 near 3% and by October 31 near 22% prices the market's read that the performance-based memorandum could still produce relief if talks advance, just not imminently. Treasury kept negotiators working even after pulling the license, and the Iran Sanctions Act was just extended to 2031, which signals leverage rather than a clean thaw. Any move depends on Hormuz behavior and a nuclear-inspection breakthrough, neither of which has landed.
Prices are probabilities — our guides cover how to read them, how markets settle, and how we find an edge.