The market wants Hormuz traffic back to normal by September 30 and prices it near nothing, which is the read the tape supports. IMF PortWatch logged roughly one transit on September 20 against a pre-crisis baseline near 85 a day, and what commercial flow exists moves under naval escort through a northern corridor. UN General Assembly talks and an Iranian seven-day reopening offer are the only path to a Yes, and even a signed deal wouldn't restore volumes to normal inside a week. The strongest No argument is arithmetic, since 'normal' is a high bar and the clock is short. A ceasefire headline spikes it without settling it.
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