A price under one percent says the Iranian regime survives the month, which is the safe read even with the regime bloodied. Six months into a war with the United States and Israel that killed Ali Khamenei, Tehran installed his son and kept functioning. Khamenei was killed in the strikes, and Iran appointed his son as successor. Opposition groups report internal strain, fuel hikes, and prison crackdowns, none of which is the same as collapse. On September 8 the regime doubled the price of gasoline purchased beyond the monthly subsidized quota. A regime can lose a war, lose its leader, and still hold power. Resolving Yes needs a genuine fall, not headlines, in days.
Prices are probabilities — our guides cover how to read them, how markets settle, and how we find an edge.