Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?

This is the closest thing on the board to a settled question, with Flávio at 98 percent and Lula at 96 to advance, and the market is right to treat both as near-locks. No pollster has anyone reaching a first-round majority, so the runoff is happening, and the top two have led every credible survey by double digits over the field. The residual risk is not who advances but the mechanics, a candidate withdrawal, a late legal ruling, or a polling collapse that no one is modeling. At these prices you are financing tail scenarios, and the return on being right is a couple of pennies against a real chance of zero.