Regional officials were reportedly told to hold turnout near 50%, and the market's fattest buckets, the 53-56% and 50-53% ranges, sit right on top of that instruction, which tells you the smart read is that this number gets manufactured toward a target rather than discovered. The 2021 Duma election came in at 51.72%, a useful anchor. Three-day voting from September 18-20 and electronic voting across 33 regions give the administration room to shape the figure while making independent monitoring far harder. The 62%-plus tail at 10% is a trade on the Kremlin wanting a mandate-flavored number amid a war-strained economy. Trust the reported target over any organic-turnout intuition.
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