This is a two-horse race the market prices as close, Nasim Nuñez against Chandler Simpson, with everyone else in the low single digits. Nuñez leads with 46 steals to Simpson's 41 heading into the final week, so the gap is five bags with limited runway. The catch is playing time and health. Simpson's value rides entirely on getting on base, and any benching or cold stretch flattens his attempts, while Nuñez has run freely all year as Washington's pressure engine. With this little season left, the trailing side needs both a hot week of his own and a quiet one from the leader, which is a lot to ask of a five-steal cushion.
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