This is twelve separate clinch questions wearing one jacket, and the prices sort cleanly into two piles. The Cubs, Padres, Phillies and White Sox sit near-certain because their magic numbers are down to a handful with a week left, while Seattle, Baltimore and Arizona are already all but gone. The trades worth thinking about are Houston and Texas, priced as a genuine two-way race for the AL West and a wild-card slot, with the Rangers holding a narrow edge entering the final week. A single sweep or a rain-out reshuffles those two overnight. Everything else is priced as arithmetic, because it mostly is.
Prices are probabilities — our guides cover how to read them, how markets settle, and how we find an edge.