A price near half a percent reflects the gap between pressure and invasion. Beijing keeps grinding through the gray zone, coast guard patrols east of the island and near-daily crossings of the strait's median line, none of which resolves this Yes. Taipei's defense ministry notes that PLA amphibious landing capabilities remain inadequate for a full-scale invasion. What would move the number is mobilization you can see from space, mass sealift, and reservist call-ups, and there is none. PLA incursions reverted to a pre-Lai baseline since the start of 2026, an adjustment in coercion strategy rather than seasonal noise. With days left, the tail is a snap escalation, not a planned landing.
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