Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory

The margin market leans hard on a tight Lula first-round win, with under 5 percent at 58 and the 5-to-10 bucket at 16, which reads as the polling translated into spread. That is defensible, since Datafolha's mid-September first-round read had Lula 39 to 36 and most surveys put the gap in the three-to-seven range. The complication is Flávio winning the first round outright, priced near 24 for a sub-5 margin, which no major first-round poll currently supports even as runoff simulations sit tied. The mover is late consolidation of the right's splintered field, because every point Cury or Caiado sheds to Flávio narrows or flips this before the fourth.