Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place

Third place is the only genuinely open question on the Brazil board, with Renan Santos and Augusto Cury both near 44 percent and Ronaldo Caiado around 15, a three-way scrap for the bronze that assumes Lula and Flávio take gold and silver. Cury has surprised, polling around 5 percent in Datafolha's late-September first-round read, which is why he is priced level with Renan Santos rather than behind. The mover here is soft support, since these candidates sit within a point or two of each other and a point or two of the polling noise. Whoever consolidates the protest vote in the final week takes it, and that is not settled.