Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place

Second place in the first round is priced as a straight referendum on Flávio versus Lula, roughly 75 to 24, with the rest of the field rounding to zero. That flips the top-line market's logic, since here Flávio is favored to finish behind Lula on October 4. It tracks the first-round polling, where Lula has led most surveys, Datafolha's mid-September read had him 39 to 36, while runoff simulations stay tied. The turn to watch is whether Flávio consolidates the anti-Lula vote before the fourth, because Augusto Cury, Caiado and Renan Santos are splitting single digits that would otherwise pad his first-round total.