This is a base-rate trade dressed up as a personality market, and the distribution shows it, with the mass sitting in the 160 to 260 range and thin tails on either side. The right way to price it is to pull Musk's actual posting cadence over recent comparable weeks and account for the fact that a single news cycle, a product launch, a political fight, can double a daily count without warning. The buckets are 20 posts wide, so a quiet stretch and a manic one both fit inside two or three adjacent bins. Edge comes from tracking the running weekly total against the clock, not from a view on his mood.
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