The market has settled on Musk posting somewhere in the 160 to 240 range this week, with the 180-to-199 bucket carrying the most weight and the tails at essentially zero. That distribution is doing real work, since a week of Musk output is a fat-tailed thing that a single news cycle or product launch can double. The buckets above 300 sit at pennies, which is the crowd betting against a genuine posting spree, and the buckets below 120 sit just as low, betting he doesn't go quiet. Your edge here is knowing his week ahead, because the counting is mechanical and the only variable is his mood and his calendar.
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