The 60-to-70-million bucket carries the market at around 70%, which is a tight read on a channel whose recent long-form has been landing near that band. MrBeast's September 5 upload sat around 107 million over eleven days, but week-one windows compress that, and his per-video ceiling has cooled from the monster numbers of a few years back. The 70-to-80 bucket at 26% is the live alternative if the next video is a bigger swing or a better thumbnail. What moves this is simple and brutal, the actual release and its first-day slope, so anyone trading before the video drops is pricing a genre, not a result.
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