Nearly the entire probability mass sits in two adjacent buckets, 16 to 19 million and 19 to 22 million, which is exactly where industry tracking put Robert Pattinson's A24 film heading into the weekend. Thursday previews came in around 2.7 million, and Deadline flagged a live shot at clearing 20 million with downside toward 18 or 19. The market has effectively zeroed out everything below 16 and above 22, a tight consensus that leaves little edge unless you think Saturday holds surprise you. Any real read comes from Friday's actuals against the 17 to 20 million tracking range, and the tape is already pricing that.
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