The 180-199 bracket at 29% anchors a distribution that says Musk's week lands somewhere in the 160 to 240 band, which fits his recent pace. His September tracker has been running near a mid-thirties weekday average and low-twenties on weekends, so a seven-day window realistically clusters around 190. The tails price accordingly, with 100-119 and everything above 300 sitting at pennies. What moves this is entirely idiosyncratic, a SpaceX launch, a political fight, or a quiet stretch, since a single heavy day can shove the total a full bucket higher. Adjacent brackets at 200-219 and 160-179 hold real probability, so the edge is in reading his week, not the point estimate.
Prices are probabilities — our guides cover how to read them, how markets settle, and how we find an edge.