Bitcoin opened September 14 near $77,700, which is why 'reach $78,000' trades around 57% and 'reach $80,000' near 21% while every strike above $84,000 sits in low single digits. The whole ladder is really one trade on a coin hovering a few hundred dollars under its first target with a Fed decision looming late in the month, and rate expectations have been whipping crypto around all quarter. The dip side tells the same story inverted, with $74,000 near even money and anything under $70,000 priced as a tail. Read this as a volatility bracket, not a directional call. A single rate surprise moves the entire board at once.
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