Spain sits around 46% with England near 29% and the draw at 28%, a spread that reflects how tight this rivalry has become. These two have met in a World Cup final, a Euro final England won on penalties, and a World Cup qualifier Spain took to send the Lionesses to the play-offs. Playing at Wembley pushes England's number up, and Spain's edge in possession play is what keeps them favored despite the venue. In a Nations League fixture between sides this evenly matched, the draw at 28% is doing real work, and the three prices summing above 100 is the vig you're trading against. Late lineup news and rotation are what move it.
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