Bitcoin has been trading in the high 70s all month, sitting near $77,600 on September 16, which explains why the $74,000 line reads 99% and $80,000 sits around 6%. The whole market is a bet on a few thousand dollars of range over a single day, so this is short-dated volatility pricing, not a directional thesis. The $78,000 strike near 35% is the live number, roughly where spot has been oscillating around its 20-day average. A golden cross just printed for the first time this year, which is the bull's talking point, though RSI hasn't confirmed and the recent action has been chop rather than trend.
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