This is a distribution guess dressed as a market, and the mass sits in the 160-to-219 band with the single peak around 180-199. Musk's weekly output swings hard with news cycles, sleep and whatever fight he's picking, so the fair way to read this is a probability curve, not a call. The edge, if there is one, comes from watching the running count midweek and knowing that a single all-nighter thread can blow through a bucket. Fading the tails is the crowd's instinct here, and the crowd is usually right until a product launch or a political week drags the number sideways.
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