Taylor Swift sits near 68% for Video of the Year on the strength of 'The Fate of Ophelia,' with Ariana Grande around 21% and Madonna near 15% despite Madonna leading the field with the most total nominations for 'Confessions II - The Film.' Nomination count and VOTY are different animals, and Swift's fan-voting machine has historically overwhelmed the online ballot in this category, which is the case for the price. The counter is that MTV loves an icon narrative, Nirvana is getting the Vanguard and Madonna opens the show, so a legacy sweep is a real tail. Swift is also being handed a separate honor that night, which can cut into a VOTY coronation or amplify it.
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