Portugal to win by two or more sits a shade above even money, which is where you'd expect the Nations League champions at home against a Wales side that missed the World Cup and hasn't won in four. Jorge Jesus takes charge for the first time with Ronaldo, Bruno Fernandes and Vitinha available, and Wales are without defenders Rodon and Lawlor. The gap between the minus-1.5 and minus-2.5 lines is the whole trade, since a comfortable 2-0 pays the smaller spread but not the larger, and first games under a new manager can be tidy rather than emphatic. Wales covering anything asks for a shock nobody is pricing.
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