Spain at 82% prices a home favorite that just extended its unbeaten run past 39 matches and beat England 3-2 to open this Nations League group, having won the 2026 World Cup final along the way. Croatia at 7% opened their own campaign with a Modric-led win in Czechia, so this is second in the group visiting first with barely a point between them on paper. What moves it is Spain's back line, where Eric García is out injured and the defense already conceded twice to England. The case for Croatia is an aging core that still travels well and a lopsided price. The case for Spain is Seville, Yamal, and form that hasn't cracked.
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