Norway sit at 42 percent, ahead of the reigning Nations League champions, and the case for the hosts is real. They reached the 2026 World Cup quarterfinals, opened this group by beating Denmark 3-2 with a Haaland brace, and hold home advantage at Ullevaal. History pulls hard the other way, with Norway winning just one of eleven meetings against Portugal, and that lone win came back in 2010. Portugal at 34 look underpriced for a squad this deep, even mid-transition under Jorge Jesus after an uninspired 1-0 over Wales. The 26 percent draw reflects two attacking sides that both start favorites at home.
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