Spain arrive at Wembley as world champions, unbeaten through a summer that ended with them beating Argentina in the final, and the market has them near 43% for good reason. England finished third at the World Cup, their best showing since 1966, but Tuchel comes in with a raft of late withdrawals and no win on home soil this year. The draw sitting around 28% is where the sharp read lives, since these two split the Euro 2024 final and a 2023 Nations League meeting by a single goal each time. Home advantage narrows the gap Spain's form suggests it should be.
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