Trump's run about 19 Truth Social posts a day in 2026, which pencils to roughly 133 for a full week and puts the mass of probability squarely in the 100-139 buckets where this market has it. The catch is the variance, not the average, since a single AI-image weekend can add 40 posts in two hours and the September 6 spree reportedly hit 60 in under eleven hours. That's why the fat right tail, the 140-plus range, carries real weight. With midterm endorsements, tariff escalations, and Iran commentary all live catalysts, the trade is less about the baseline and more about whether one manic day drags the week into a higher bracket.
Prices are probabilities — our guides cover how to read them, how markets settle, and how we find an edge.