This is a market about frequency, not events, and the prices sort cleanly into things Trump says on autopilot and things that require a trigger. "Golf," "TDS," "Kamala" and "Barack Hussein Obama" all sit near certainty because they're verbal tics, not news. The tradeable middle is where the reasoning lives. "Rigged Election" near 47% and "Netanyahu" around 35% both hinge on whether a given week hands him the topic. Worth watching is the calendar. UNGA High-Level Week runs September 22 through 29, so a Middle East or Iran remark that would spike "Ceasefire" or "Bibi" may land just after this window closes on the 21st.
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