The market has parked 75% on an RCP average of exactly 39.6 on September 19, with everything above 40.0 and below 39.4 near zero. That is a tight distribution around a number that had been sitting in the low 39s, and RCP averages move slowly because they blend many polls. What shifts the reading is a single high-quality poll dropping into or out of the window, which can nudge a decimal without any real change in sentiment. The nearby strikes at 39.7 and 39.5 are where the actual uncertainty lives, so this is a trade about aggregation mechanics, not about whether Trump is unpopular.
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