Every threshold through ten presidential actions trades at 99%, and at fifteen the price collapses to 1%. That shape tells you the base rate cold. This administration issues actions at a steady clip well into double digits most weeks, so the low bars are effectively resolved and the only live question is the tail. Fifteen or more in a single week happens during bursts around a policy push or a crisis, not on a quiet news cycle. The edge, if any, lives in the top strike, where you are trading whether this particular week produces an unusual volume of orders and proclamations rather than a typical one.
Prices are probabilities — our guides cover how to read them, how markets settle, and how we find an edge.