The vote closed to badge holders on Sunday, so this market is pricing a result that already exists and just isn't public yet, which makes late line moves the tell rather than screening buzz. The Debut leads at 24%, with Jesse Eisenberg following A Real Pain and Julianne Moore drawing the kind of audience-friendly reception TIFF crowds reward. I Play Rocky reportedly got repeated standing ovations, and I'd weight crowd energy heavily since roughly 2,600 accredited voters decide this, not critics. La bola negra and Wild Horse Nine round out a genuinely open field. Twelve of the last 15 winners landed Best Picture nominations, which is what the money is really chasing.
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