Napoli at 44% for a match in Florence tells you the market trusts neither team much. Allegri's Napoli sit mid-table with defensive problems and have McTominay out with a heart issue and Meret injured, while Fiorentina arrive on a genuine upswing. Vanoli replaced the sacked Fabio Grosso after three straight losses and immediately took a 4-2 win at Venezia plus a cup result, though the Viola are still 15th on three points. Napoli have won the last several meetings and carry stronger underlying numbers. The draw at 28% is the read to interrogate here, given how tight and low-scoring recent editions of this fixture have run.
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