Robert Pattinson's A24 drama came out of Venice with critics falling over themselves, and it has sat between 91% and 100% on the Tomatometer through late September. Kalshi's traders price the final number lower, around the mid-80s, because early Tomatometer scores are built on a small pool of festival reviews that drifts down as wide-release critics pile in. The tension is whether the 25th release adds enough lukewarm takes to crack the higher strikes. Some critics already flagged the script as heavy-handed even while praising Pattinson, and the market resolves off the frozen score on the 28th, so late reviews carry real weight.
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